Should the lithium revolution bigger than plug-in cars?Some years ago, when Toyota announced that lithium would be the third generation Prius power, I believed that hybrid cars were to be addressed and that the pursuit of plug-ins would quickly and steadily. By 2020, I was convinced that every new car would be a hybrid or a plug-in.
Toyota then put its lithium plans on hold.
Also, as lithium has advanced to automotive reality, study after study has proposed that the lithium revolution is not nearly as mature as I once had hoped. And some new research suggests that we might have just the battery completely wrong-and perhaps the revolution.
Recently, on the 4th Symposium on energy storage: Beyond Lithium-ion, Jürgen Leohold, head of the Volkswagen Group research, suggested that while electrification is perfectly logical, lithium-ion batteries remain a barrier to success.
According to Leohold today available lithium-ion batteries have an estimated capacity of 120 Wh/kg, and by 2020 energy capacity will probably go to 200 Wh/kg. However, 400-600 Wh/kg is needed to really get the plug-in revolution, and 1000 Wh/kg will probably have to fully compete with advanced ICE vehicles – at least according to Leohold.
Unfortunately, reaching 400 + Wh/kg, Leohold suggests, requires a technology than the lithium-ion, a feeling of many lithium-ion researchers and studies. That could take decades based on the time it took to modern lithium-ion technologies.
In the comments regarding Leohold allegations posted on GreenCarCongress, however, some have taken exception, claim that Tesla Leohold turns out wrong with next gen battery packs intended for vehicles such as the Model S that have pushed far beyond 120 Wh/kg.
But again, Tesla's batteries are commercially available? Nr. even if they are available for Model S 15,000 per year in the coming years, it means that they will be commercially available for mass production in the automotive industry? Probably not.
Inevitably, there may be real world production possibilities for enough battery packs to vehicles produce several million per year, at least, such battery packs really not commercially available based on each scale meaningful car industry.
Still, maybe Tesla will reach some unexpected breakthrough lithium-ion, or Argonne, Toyota or any number of others deep in lithium R&D.
Or, maybe the battery must be fully reworked.
Researchers at MIT, for example, work on semi-solid wood flow batteries since 2010 energy storage and discharge into two separate structures. According to Autoweek, if perfected, battery size and cost can therefore be cut in half.
Of course, like other battery technologies, many technical barriers still exist and perfecting semi-solid wood flow batteries for car use could still take many years.
In many respects perhaps chaos be the perfect way to describe the State of the battery industry, in particular those for plug-in vehicles. Almost everything is still possible.
So, what does that say about the battery revolution?
The plug-in revolution will last longer than most proponents are willing to accept. There is still too much uncertainty and costs still too high. Even when these problems are solved, it will take decades to replace the hundreds of millions of cars on our roads.
Lithium can still makes sense then just plug-in vehicles. Even mild lithium-powered hybrid technologies offer huge potential to foreign oil consumption and CO2 emissions, today. In the next decade, while lithium-powered plug-ins can draw all the hype, mild lithium hybrids results much bigger.
At the end of the day, the world is not yet on the edge of a battery-powered plug-in revolution, but we still have enough tools to be revolutionary if fully electrified vehicles are perfected-something that may be years or even decades. The real question seems to be, we will have the courage and the vision to take advantage of the low hanging fruit now have, or will we rot in the status quo as we are on the perfect solutions to wait?
Categories: Fuel Economy, hybrid cars, Misc., plug-in vehicles, electric cars, lithium batteries, plug-in hybrid cars Tags: co2, electric cars, foreign oil dependence, hybrid cars, plug-in hybrids
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